OKC's 2025 Economic Outlook

Job gains today and prospective labor force for future positions Oklahoma City for long run success

Oklahoma City's steady job growth, younger-than-average population and role as the state's economic driver position the metro for long-term success, according to the 2025 Greater Oklahoma City Economic Outlook. The study, completed by Russell Evans, partner and chief economist for Thorberg Collective, and Eric Long, research economist for the Chamber, projects a 2.5% increase in metro job growth for 2025, adding 18,200 jobs.

The Oklahoma City Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) continues to drive the state’s economy, contributing nearly 40% of the state's GDP and over a third of its population. Economic activity is dispersing across the metro, with Oklahoma County’s share of GDP falling to 70% and population dipping below 55%. Growth is focused in the south and west, where Canadian and McLain counties have seen annual population growth of 3.3% and 2.5%, respectively, and economic growth rates of 6.5% and 7.2% since 2013. This trend is expected to continue as Oklahoma City leads state economic growth while Oklahoma County’s share gradually decreases. Real per capita income and GDP in the Oklahoma City MSA are expected to grow modestly in 2025, with income growth meeting or exceeding U.S. averages. With 21.4% of the population aged 10-24, Oklahoma City is well positioned for future growth.

Looking back at 2024

In 2024, the Oklahoma City metro economy saw a 2.1% year-over-year increase in nonfarm jobs – or 14,700 positions. The largest job gains were in education & health (6.6%), construction (6.5%), leisure & hospitality (5.3%), other services (4.0%), government (2.6%) and mining/oil & gas (1.0%). Declines occurred in information (-2.1%), finance (-2.0%), professional business services (-1.7%), manufacturing (-1.5%) and trade, transportation and utilities (-1.0%).

Real Estate Outlook

The CoStar Industrial Market Report (January 2025) shows Oklahoma City has 152 million square feet of industrial space, with rent growing by 0.4%, below the 10-year historical average of 4.7%. The vacancy rate is 5.3%, expected to remain steady. Currently, 610,000 square feet of industrial construction is underway, primarily in the Southeast Submarket. Unlike past construction waves, the current construction is mostly speculative.

The office market saw flat rent growth, underperforming the U.S. average of 1.2%. However, Oklahoma City’s vacancy rate of 9.6% outperforms the national average of 14%. The metro has over 70 million square feet of office space, with more than 400,000 square feet under construction. Asking rates average $20.32, ranging from $16.75 to $24.14.

Statewide outlook

Oklahoma is expected to add 42,000 jobs in 2025, with nonfarm employment gains averaging 3,500 new jobs per month, a 2.3% growth rate. Job growth will be concentrated in metro areas and labor-intensive service sectors. Construction and oil and natural gas will also see strong growth. Oklahoma’s population is growing at nearly double the U.S. pace, supporting real estate, labor and consumer markets. With average prices 12% lower than the national average and inflation under 2%, the unemployment rate is expected to stay between 3.5% and 4%, while local inflation remains below 2%.