Q&A: Andrew Busch previews State of the Economy keynote

Top economic strategist Andrew Busch, former chief market intelligence officer for the U.S. government, will keynote the Chamber’s upcoming State of the Economy event. Busch has briefed leading government bodies, including the White House, U.S. Senate, and Federal Reserve, on issues like inflation, interest rates and China trade. 

At the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Busch transformed dense market data into practical insights for policymakers. Now, as an economic futurist and consultant, he advises industries ranging from finance to agriculture on adapting to the economy’s rapid changes. 

In a preview with our VeloCity team, Busch offered a look into his keynote, where he’ll explore economic shifts, global trade and how technology is shaping markets.  

Here’s what he shared with us:

Q: Tell me what audience members can expect to take away from your keynote? 

A: In the first section, I’ll cover the global macro-outlook for the U.S. economy, touching on inflation, interest rates and the broader economic factors that are creating uncertainty. The second section will focus on the outcome of the election, both for the President and Congress, and what that means for policy and regulations. In the third section, I’ll highlight big trends shaping the economy and business, like climate change and demographics — key drivers of transformation. Finally, I’ll tie it all together, applying these factors to future growth opportunities. I’ll also give the audience a "crystal ball" by examining venture capital investments in areas like AI, talent management, circularity and energy — providing insight into how these trends are evolving and how they might impact businesses moving forward. The goal is not for the audience to invest in these companies, but to broaden their perspective on AI and its potential impact.

Q: What specific strategies do you recommend for workforce development in OKC to ensure that businesses can attract and retain talent?

A: Oklahoma City has done a great job redeveloping downtown, and the community is a big part of that success. To continue attracting talent, Oklahoma City should look to states benefiting from demographic shifts, like Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina and Florida. Many of these states have no income taxes, though they still rely on sales and real estate taxes. Drawing talent to Oklahoma requires thoughtful legislation and making the state, particularly Oklahoma City, an attractive place to live. Redeveloping downtown is key, but so is ensuring affordable housing is available. High housing costs can be a barrier, especially for workers in retail, leisure and hospitality, which is a nationwide issue. As Oklahoma City attracts more workers, it must ensure affordable housing options are in place to keep them here.

Q: You mentioned that AI is crucial for business growth. Can you elaborate on the opportunities you see for businesses to leverage AI further? 

A: Many people haven't even started with AI yet, and it's important to understand that AI is not just software or magic. The key to success is collecting, cataloging and ensuring the data you’re using is clean — whether it’s inventory, energy usage or something else. Without good data, your models won’t be useful. The most important step when getting started with AI is having conversations across your organization. Identify who’s doing well with data, who isn’t and figure out how to get everyone on board to create a comprehensive model that provides real business insights.

Q: Given that OKC is experiencing full employment, why do you think the Federal Reserve is considering cutting interest rates? What implications do you see this having for local businesses and the economy as a whole?

A: I believe the Fed made a mistake by cutting interest rates 50 basis points. A cut that large should only happen in an emergency. With nearly 3% GDP growth, 2.4% inflation and 4.1% unemployment, this isn’t a soft landing—it’s no landing. There’s no need for further rate cuts; the Fed can afford to wait. They made a huge mistake when they thought inflation was transitory, and then they rushed to catch up by raising rates 525 basis points over 14 months. After holding rates high for 24 months, cutting 50 basis points wasn’t necessary to boost economic growth. The Fed needs to be cautious about cutting rates too quickly, as it could reignite inflation. Next year, consistent cuts might be needed, but for now, they should be careful.

Q: Regardless of the election outcome, what key public policy changes should businesses in OKC be preparing for to capitalize on future growth opportunities?

A: On the Trump side, there are both positives and negatives. The plus is his regulatory approach, while the minus includes tariffs and the potential removal of undocumented workers, which could create chaos. On the Harris side, raising taxes without cutting spending isn’t a good policy, as it could lead to stagnation and slower growth. Her plan to give $25,000 for housing is also a mistake; the focus should be on increasing housing supply, not demand. The plus for Harris is that she’s not all about deficit spending. Continued policies will likely support the development of the EV industry, batteries, CHIPS and science. For Harris, it’s more of the same, with really big positives and negatives for Trump. I just want to make it clear; it won’t be like 2017 when President Trump had Paul Ryan’s growth strategy, which reduced the tax burden, but made it thoughtful in the sense of generating economic growth and deregulation. This time, the easy wins are gone, and Trump’s policies may be more disruptive, creating more uncertainty — especially with tariffs. While there are opportunities, it’s crucial to be mindful of potential problems.

Hear more economic insights at the Chamber’s State of the Economy event on November 14. For additional details on the economics of AI and energy, visit AndrewBusch.com to access the report available for free.