Q&A: Conversation with Stephen Jury, J.P. Morgan Chase

Stephen Jury will serve as the keynote speaker for the Greater Oklahoma City Chamber’s State of the Economy event on November 19. 

As Vice Chairman of J.P. Morgan Private Bank and a Markets and Global Commodity Strategist, Stephen brings more than 40 years of experience in financial markets and a deep understanding of global economic trends. Based in New York, he leads efforts to deliver J.P. Morgan’s comprehensive macro, market and investment perspectives to clients, with a particular focus on commodities such as energy, metals and agriculture. His extensive background—spanning leadership roles across major financial institutions including Chemical Bank, HSBC, UBS and Tradex Capital Markets—positions him as an insightful voice on global market dynamics. 

In this Q&A, we get an inside look into Stephen’s expertise and insights he will share as keynote speaker at State of the Economy. 

Here’s what he shared with us: 

Q: What do you enjoy most about translating complex economic trends into insights people can use? 

A: I enjoy helping someone who is maybe confused or seeking advice get to the point where they understand what it is that we're trying to tell them and act upon that advice. Lastly, it turns out to be a positive exercise where they make money. In some cases, like this year, a lot of money is spent on some of the advice that we've given them. That is very satisfying. 

Q: Is it difficult to navigate the ups and downs of the markets when offering advice? 

A: When I first came to this side of the business, there were a couple of occasions where we had given advice to clients, and it was heading in the wrong direction. I found that to be very stressful, but then I realized that people's patience and their long-term ability to stay with the trend is sometimes greater than you might imagine. However, that's because when people start to lose money, they pretend those trades don't exist, and they go into denial. Then, over time, those trends turn around; they become profitable again. I'd like not to think that's the case, but I tend to think in the back of my mind that might be a factor. 

Q: How does your international experience shape the way you view the Unites States economy and the opportunities ahead? 

A: It helps a lot because I'm not trapped in a specific way of thinking. Americans especially have negative views on what's happening here. But if you travel extensively and you work in different places, you get a better world view, so you can translate on a relatively different basis. I recently gave a presentation sharing that you must understand everything is relative. It's not just about what's happening in the U.S. Finance moves to an international, global marketplace, and that cash can move quickly. The big players are looking at everything on a relatively different basis. So, you don't want to fall in the trap of only looking at the U.S., the state you live in or the city you live in. The world's a pretty place. Finance tends to ignore negative sentiment from people who are naysayers. Equity markets continue to go significantly higher this year in what would appear to be a very highly charged political environment. Having that international experience helps to view it in a more dispassionate lens. 

Q: You speak at many economic forums across the country. What excites you about visiting OKC and speaking to this audience? 

A: I live in a city that is very removed from life in Oklahoma. There are people here who think it's strange somebody like me would go to a place like Oklahoma. There are lots of people who have never been to Oklahoma and will never go to Oklahoma. For me to have made those trips and to have met people in the state, I find them to be tremendously welcoming, very friendly and interesting. I enjoy interacting with people there, and it's one of my favorite places to visit. Quite honestly, as you travel around the U.S., there are places where it's not as much fun, safe or intellectually interesting. I'm also someone who enjoys going to places where I feel that I'm in America, as opposed to a state or a city that rejects being American. Some of the appeal of traveling to Oklahoma is I feel I'm in the American homelands. 

Q: What’s one common misconception about the economy or economists that you’d love to set the record straight on? 

A: It’s easy to sound smart when you’re saying that the economy is going to crash, and equities are going to go down. There are many people who have created a competitive industry saying that doom is coming. 

But the reality is in a democracy, we are looking to grow markets and economies, and we are seeking to improve everybody’s life—and you do that through economic growth. The trend is for things to be better. 

One of the misconceptions is things are about to turn bad all the time. They’re just not. That’s not how things work. You need to have a more optimistic outlook—especially when you’re investing—because it’s about being patient and understanding that democracies and economic growth will create wealth for you if you’re patient and have a systematic approach to investing. 

I’m acutely aware of the idea that working in finance doesn’t provide a social benefit. But it does, in a way, because it helps people grow their wealth. Helping people grow their wealth has benefits. You could be cynical about it, but at the end of the day, if you can improve the lives of families and the generations that come after them, that has to be a social benefit. 

Q: What do you hope attendees take away from your keynote at this year’s State of the Economy? 

A: I want them to come away with a better understanding of where we are and where we're going. People ask me, “How can I buy equities here when they're at all-time highs?” or “How can I buy gold here when it's at all-time highs?”  

You don't want to worry about where things have come from. You want to worry about where things are going, so I want to get people to think about the world in terms of what opportunities and risks are going forward, and how to be prudent about managing those risks. Hopefully, the advice and the data will help them to have a better understanding about how we think we're going to move forward over the next 12 months, if not longer. 

Q: What do you want the audience to know in anticipation for the State of the Economy? 

A: I’m not an economist—I’m a strategist.  

While I didn’t study economics—I find sitting around very smart people who are economists very intellectually interesting. But they get it wrong a lot. 

The reason they get it wrong is because economics is really about trying to predict human behavior. Human behavior determines how economies perform. We can try to shape that behavior through direct and government policy, but sometimes humans can be very surprised. They can be more resilient or less resilient. They can fold very quickly, become scared and run for the hills. 

At the end of the day, how all those human beings act is what determines how economies do. Trying to predict that is incredibly difficult. That’s one of the misconceptions about this field—it’s not easy. You may listen to me, and I could be completely wrong. 

You have to remember, just because we have all the data and look at all the trends and momentum, doesn’t necessarily mean the hopes, fears, greed or caution of all those humans will translate into markets and economies moving in the ways we expect. People can be very surprising—and that’s another big misconception people have.