Oklahoma City makes sizable gains in 2020 Census, will benefit from growth

The United States Census Bureau in August released data from the 2020 U.S. Census revealing that the city of Oklahoma City was one of just 14 cities nationwide to add more than 100,000 people from 2010 to 2020.

Oklahoma City saw a 17.4% increase in its population from 579,999 residents to 681,054 residents over that time period, placing it as the 22nd largest city in the U.S. Five of the 14 cities that gained more than 100,000 residents were from Texas: Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. The others were spread out across the country, including Charlotte, N.C.; Columbus, Ohio; Denver; Jacksonville, Fla; Los Angeles; New York City; Phoenix; and Seattle.

The 2020 Census also showed that the U.S. had the slowest 10-year population growth rate since the Great Depression at 7.4%; however, Oklahoma is part of the fastest-growing region in the country – the South – which experienced a 10.2% change in population from 2010 to 2020.

The census also reported that five of the top six fastest-growing counties in Oklahoma were in the Greater Oklahoma City region. Canadian County led the pack with a percentage change of 33.6% since the last census, making Canadian County the 27th fastest-growing county in the U.S. Rounding out the top six counties in the state were McClain (20.7%), Logan (18.4%) Cleveland (15.6%), Tulsa (10.9%) and Oklahoma (10.8%). Oklahoma County accounted for 43% of total population growth for the region, increasing from 718,633 county residents in 2010 to 796,292 in 2020.

Greater Oklahoma City Chamber research economist Eric Long said several reasons factored into the Oklahoma City metro’s growth. Leading the pack is job growth. According to Long, the Oklahoma City metro added more than 60,000 jobs over the past decade.

“Population follows jobs. That’s the end of the story. Wherever there are jobs, people will move wherever those jobs are. So that is one reason why Oklahoma City has continued to expand in terms of population,” Long said.

Efforts to diversify Oklahoma City’s economy has also played a large role in adding so many new jobs to the region, with the aerospace sector leading the way, Long said. There are 291 firms in the Oklahoma City region that are tied to the aerospace sector, employing about 43,000 people, led by Tinker Air Force Base, the state’s largest single-site employer with 26,000 employees.

“A lot of our resources have gone into the aerospace sector to grow that base. Not only efforts to help retain jobs at Tinker and grow jobs at Tinker, but also identify commercial opportunities within the private sector that are tied to aerospace,” Long said.

The professional services sector has also grown over time as has the retail and hospitality sector, turning Oklahoma City into a destination retail haven for companies that are wanting to take advantage of the population gains within the Oklahoma City market.

Other reasons Long identified as to why people are moving to Oklahoma City include such things as migration of people from other metros across the country such as Dallas, Houston, L.A., Phoenix and Wichita, Kansas; job growth and population gains along the I-35 corridor; keeping more college graduates in the state; and an above-average birth rate, which is 9% above the national average.

Long said what is currently happening in Oklahoma mirrors what is occurring across the nation – population growth has occurred mostly in metro areas. He said since 2010, the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metros accounted for nearly 70% of net population gains for the entire state. Without those two metros, the rest of the state experienced a net population loss of 43,000.

“Both Oklahoma City and Tulsa are seven counties in geographic size, but the Oklahoma City metro actually has 400,000 more people than the Tulsa metro, which equates to about another 200,000 workers. Oklahoma City also grew 1.6 times faster than Tulsa since 2010,” said Long, who noted that Tulsa ‘s metro population now exceeds one million people, joining Oklahoma City in that exclusive club, along with 53 other metros nationwide.

One consequence of the census is its impact on apportionment. Long said there is more than $1.5 trillion in funding the federal government will dole out to states based on new census data collected every 10 years. A higher participation rate can translate into more federal funding for states.

New census figures also require redistricting for states, counties and cities to reflect population gains and losses. Although Oklahoma gained population over the last 10 years, it was not enough to earn an additional seat in Congress. The state currently has five congressional seats, and that is where it will remain. There will, however, be changes made at the state, county and city levels to reflect the new census data.

Mark VanLandingham, senior vice president of government relations and policy with the Greater Oklahoma City Chamber, said because population shifted from rural Oklahoma to the metro areas, and the Oklahoma City metro area grew faster than Tulsa since 2010, central Oklahoma is likely going to gain additional representation at the state Capitol.

“We expect redistricting to provide central Oklahoma with an additional legislator in both the House and Senate,” VanLandingham said. “The population shift into central Oklahoma should provide the OKC metro with more legislators who are likely to align with the interests and needs of central Oklahoma, which would be a positive outcome.”

VanLandingham explained that state legislators drafted new legislative maps based on preliminary numbers they received prior to the official release of the census data. Now that the figures have been finalized, they will tweak the preliminary map accordingly. He said the population shifts in Oklahoma City will also mean new district lines for the Oklahoma City Public School District and for Oklahoma City’s eight City Council wards. Oklahoma County will also have new district lines drawn.

“That is one of the most interesting things about redistricting. We’ll have new lines, and everybody has to adjust. Somebody right now may not reside in a ward they will be drawn into after redistricting. So we don’t yet know which potential candidates will be brought into the mix until we actually see where the new lines are,” VanLandingham said.

This story originally appeared in the October 2021 edition of the VeloCity newsletter.